Beef/Cattle: Disproportionally large cow slaughter has kept average dressed weights lower during most of 2011 than if steers had constituted half or more of beef slaughter, as they typically do. Packer margins and high feed and feeder cattle prices are exerting downward pressure on fed cattle prices.
Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. beef exports are expected to increase by 21 percent in 2011.
Although U.S. domestic beef supplies will be 5 percent lower in 2012, exports should remain strong and stay about even with levels exported this year. As tight global beef supplies will continue into next year, U.S. beef imports are expected to increase only moderately into 2012.
Pork/Hogs: October pork exports were more than 42 percent greater than a year ago, propelled primarily by very strong Asian demand (ie, Japan, China, and South Korea).
Strong export growth is expected to continue through the fourth quarter, before tailingoff in 2012. Total U.S. pork exports are expected to be 5.1 billion pounds, both this year, and in 2012.
Poultry: Sharply lower broiler chick placements and slower growth in bird weights have lowered the fourth-quarter 2011 broiler meat production estimate by 25 million pounds to 9.0 billion pounds and resulted in decreased estimates for the first and second quarters of 2012. The lower production is expected to gradually lower stocks. Turkey production was basically unchanged in October as slightly higher bird numbers were offset by lower bird weights. Cold storage holdings for whole turkeys continued below those of a year earlier, putting upward pressure on prices.
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