WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White wheat. Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply and use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade. Ending stocks for 2011/12, at 878 million bushels, are projected to be up 16 million from last year, but down 98 million from the recent high in 2009/10. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered slightly to $7.05 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $7.05 to $7.75 last month.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 9.3 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks in Australia and Argentina and a 5.7-million-ton increase in foreign production.
Beginning stocks for Australia are raised for 2011/12 with a 1.9-million-ton increase in 2010/11 production based on recently released data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Argentina beginning stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12 are raised with revisions to 2009/10 and 2010/11 production based on the latest indications of available supplies and usage.
Global wheat production for 2011/12 is projected at a record 689.0 million tons, up 37.4 million from 2010/11, and 3.5 million higher than the previous record in 2009/10. Australia production for 2011/12 is raised 2.3 million tons in line with the latest government estimate. Another year of adequate to abundant precipitation across the country’s southern and eastern growing areas clique aquiand a recovery in production in Western Australia pushes production to a record 28.3 million tons. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected harvested area and yields with recent improvements in late-season growing conditions. Production for Canada is raised 1.1 million tons based on the latest estimate from Statistics Canada. Production is raised 0.9 million tons for China based on the recently released estimate from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Other 2011/12 production changes this month are smaller and mostly offsetting.
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